by cameron | Jun 12, 2008 | Uncategorized
The guy who wrote the MSFT Extreme Makeover blog has hung up his riding boots with a terrific summary post on Microsoft’s woes. After MSFT’s share price being in the toilet for the better part of a decade, Extreme has had enough. I sold my last remaining MSFT shares just before the YHOO announcement sent them into another decline. As Extreme points out, I think we’ve all been patient enough. We’ve given Ballmer ten years to turn the share price around. As Extreme says “stick a fork in its ass, it’s done”.
One paragraph struck me in particular, probably because I said something similar on my blog back in 2004 and it was one of the things that got me into hot water at Microsoft:
As I’ve noted before, Microsoft’s marketing is an embarrassment. Their PR is too, but that’s another matter. Perhaps the most glaring example of this is the failure to respond to Apple’s PC/Mac TV ads, something that Gates denied is having a negative impact as recently as the D conference a few weeks ago. Huh? Earth to Bill, come in. This is the same company that wants to be a leader in advertising, right? And the one spending $300 million to makeover its image?
Back in 2004 I wrote a blog post wondering why Microsoft’s marketing was so ordinary and my manager at the time told me I couldn’t say such things because it would upset the people in marketing. Well duh. He was of the “stick your head in the sand and it will all just go away” school of thought. Here we are, 4 years later, and I think we can all safely agree that they have been in a steady decline ever since.
Why? It isn’t because the people aren’t smart or because they don’t hire great agencies. I think it comes down to this: Microsoft has never had to sell anything in it’s life. For 30 years they had the hottest products since ice cream. The places where they did have to hustle, like NT or SQL Server, didn’t require advertising. They were sold door to door. So they don’t have a culture that understands advertising. But that’s just my 2 cents.
I love Microsoft, I really do. They have done so much good for the world. I just wish they’d pull their heads out of their collective asses and get back on the job.
by cameron | Jun 12, 2008 | Uncategorized
I’m trying to work out who the top thinkers and visionaries are in Australia who can help us plot a course for 2050. I’ve put together a quick wiki to collate your ideas in a central place. Go to the 2050 wiki.
by cameron | Jun 12, 2008 | media 2.0
Paul Ryan asked me to write a story for the June/July issue of Anthill about digital media and entrepreneurship. I ended up writing something about how it seems to me that digital media entrepreneurs require a higher code of ethics, a higher vision, than your run-of-the-mill online entrepreneurs. Click on the image below to read the full article.
by cameron | Jun 12, 2008 | Uncategorized
I’m working on an idea and I need your help. I want to put together a list of the top thinkers in Australia. I mean the really amazing people, the ones with a huge vision for the country or the world or even their industry. The people who are leading from the front, dreaming big dreams and doing their best to realize them. I’m looking for inspirational, amazing Australians.
I’m nominating Peter Ellyard but I’m struggling to come up with the rest. I’m sure they are out there but who are they? Who is on your list?
by cameron | Jun 10, 2008 | singularity
IEEE Spectrum has a series of new essays on the singularity from the likes of Vernor Vinge and Rodney Brooks (who have both been on this show in the last year).
My favourite quote so far comes from Vinge’s new essay “Signs of the Singularity“:
“The best answer to the question, “Will computers ever be as smart as humans?†is probably “Yes, but only brieflyâ€.”
by cameron | Jun 9, 2008 | science, singularity, transhumanism
Hans Moravec has suggested that the human brain has a processing capacity of 10 quadrillion instructions per second (10 billion MIPS). In comparison, it was announced today that the fastest supercomputer in the world, called Roadrunner and devised and built by engineers and scientists at I.B.M. and Los Alamos National Laboratory, is capable of handling 1.026 quadrillion calculations per second.
In 2007, it was announced the previous fastest supercomputer, IBM’s Blue Gene /l, had been upgraded to achieve 478 TFLOPS sustained and 596 TFLOPS peak. So in less that 12 months, we’ve doubled (hey, I should create a law around that prediction).
So, if Moore’s Law holds out:
2009 – 2 QIPS
2010 – 4 QIPS
2011 – 8 QIPS
2012 – 16 QIPS – which puts it 6 QIPS above the suggested ability of a human brain.
Are you ready for that? Do you think the human race is ready for that?
We have NO IDEA what the consequences of that are. On one hand, it could be nothing. On the other hand, what if sentience is nothing more than massive computation?
Either way, here we are, a mere 4 years before a machine is likely to be built which will have a bigger brain than a human and we aren’t even discussing what that means for the human race.
Well, that’s not exactly true – Tyler’s Singularity Institute are discussing it, but where is the debate in mainstream media, in the government, in polite society?
It reminds me of a chat I had with Australian SF author Damien Broderick over dinner about ten years ago. I asked him when he thought these subjects would be discussed by the general populace. He replied “when it’s way too late to do anything about it”.
by cameron | Jun 8, 2008 | Podcast, Uncategorized
Andre writes the “Lost Parent Diary” blog and he recently contacted me about a podcast I did where I mentioned how my twin boys started saving their pocket money to buy their own laptops when they were about five years old. He wrote it up into a blog post about teaching your kids to save money. He even turned it into a step-by-step guide!
Now I must admit, while we were helping Tay and Hunter save for their laptops, it didn’t seem like we were doing anything super special. I was impressed with is decision to save for a laptop at age five, but apart from that, we were just doing the basics of what I’m sure all parents do with their kids. But the way Andre has written it up makes it sound like we knew what we were doing. It’s all in the writing, I assure you.
I’m excited these days about helping them start their first business this year. We’ve been talking about it for a year or so now and it’s the next logical step.
I’m looking at starting a podcast about parenting at the moment actually. Anyone interested in hosting it should let me know.
by cameron | Jun 8, 2008 | Uncategorized
Okay so – Steve’s crystal ball hasn’t been 100% accurate over the years – neither has BillG’s – but he’s also helped build Microsoft into the giant it is today, despite decades of predicitions of it’s imminent demise, so he must know something. And this is what he said recently about the future of media:
In the next 10 years, the whole world of media, communications and advertising are going to be turned upside down — my opinion.
Here are the premises I have. Number one, there will be no media consumption left in 10 years that is not delivered over an IP network. There will be no newspapers, no magazines that are delivered in paper form. Everything gets delivered in an electronic form.
(source – Washington Post. Thanks for Bron for the link)
He also says that he prefers to watch “Lost” for free over the internet with ads in it rather than pay a buck for it on iTunes. And Steve is worth what – $4 Billion? Says a lot about content monetization strategies… or it could just be his desire not to line SteveJ’s pocket.
by cameron | Jun 8, 2008 | Christianity, science, science vs religion
It in the last few days I’ve had two startling, and somewhat depressing, conversations.
In both instances, I had a debate with people I admire, for their intelligence and intellectual rigour, about the merit of the scientific method. In both cases, my opponents made claims which felt unscientific to me. When I challenged their thinking on the subject, it lead to a conversation which went something like this:
THEM: “I don’t think science is the only way to know the truth.”
ME: “ORLY? What alternative method do you propose?”
THEM: “Well I don’t have an alternative. I just think there are things that science doesn’t know.”
ME: “Of course, there is plenty that science doesn’t know. But the list of things which *might* be true are infintesmal. Only a sub-set of those ideas can *actually* be true. If we don’t use the scientific method (hypothesis, testing, evidence, conclusions, consensus) to determine which of those ideas are *actually* true, what alternative method do you propose?”
Now at this point, people usually start dithering about “well, I don’t have an alternative, I just… well I… it just seems to me that science isn’t the only way… I… well…”.
I am appalled. I mean, I expect that kind of response from people addicted to mythological cults that train you to ignore facts – Christianity, Scientology, etc. But neither of the people I was talking to are religious in a traditional sense. Both are extremely articulate, deep thinkers, and self-confident about their own intellect and opinions. So, unlike when I get into these debates with cultists, I’m sure they didn’t feel threatened by my somewhat aggressive approach to the determination of ‘truth’.
And yet, for some reason which remains unclear to me, they subscribe to this meme that “science isn’t the only way”, even though they are completely unable to articulate an alternative.
How did we get here? How can it possibly be that at the dawn of the 21st century, there are people who are educated, intelligent, free from infection by mythological dogma, yet who still refuse to accept an evidence-based approach to determining fact from fiction?
It strikes me that science – that is, the scientific method – needs a celebrity makeover.
The human race needs a serious dose of education about what the scientific method entails and why it is – without any rational argument that I’m aware of – the superior process for determining what is true and what is false.
Perhaps we need a complete overhaul – we need to dramatically improve how science is taught in school, at university and how it is portrayed by the media. We need big budget Hollywood (and Bollywood) films made which portray science in a positive light, which re-iterate WHAT the scientific method is and WHY it is the best way we’ve come up with (so far) for determining the truth about how the universe works.
by cameron | Jun 7, 2008 | Cuba, Iraq, US politics
So much for being “The Land Of The Free”: Human Rights Watch has just posted up the latest stats which show the USA incarcerates nearly 7 times the number of it’s citizens are other democracies such as the UK and Canada.
Statistics released today by the Bureau of Justice Statistics, a branch of the US Department of Justice, show that as of June 30, 2007, approximately 2.3 million persons were incarcerated in US prisons and jails, an all-time high. This represents an incarceration rate of 762 per 100,000 US residents, the highest such rate in the world. By contrast, the United Kingdom’s incarceration rate is 152 per 100,000 residents; the rate in Canada is 108; and in France it is 91.
“The new incarceration figures confirm the United States as the world’s leading jailer,†said David Fathi, US program director at Human Rights Watch. “Americans should ask why the US locks up so many more people than do Canada, Britain, and other democracies.â€
He goes on to say even though the majority of drug users in America are white, the majority of people imprisoned on drug charges are black.
“The ‘war on drugs’ has become a war on black Americans.â€
So let’s see:
- America jails more of it’s people than any other country in the world (including Cuba, Iraq, Russia and China)
- America has more gun deaths per capita (by a huge margin) than any other country in the world.
- America has more nuclear weapons than any other country in the world.
- America has financed more terrorism and supported more dictators than any other country in the world in the last century.
The question in my mind is: Is America the most violent country in the world? And why, when they have it so good?
